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Happy Labor Day Weekend | Economic Update | The Behavior Gap and Your Financial Health

Happy Labor Day Weekend | Economic Update | The Behavior Gap and Your Financial Health

September 02, 2022
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Dear Client Family and Friends:

I try not to overwhelm you with a lot of stuff in your inbox, but because of the market volatility, I thought I would send the “Weekly Economic Update for August 29, 2022”.  I’m also attaching a repeat article titled “The Behavior Gap and Your Financial Health - How might it affect you?”  It’s worth a read (again).

I also want to wish you a safe Labor Day weekend.  For most of us, Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer.  But according to Wikipedia, “Labor Day is a federal holiday in the United States celebrated on the first Monday in September to honor and recognize the American labor movement and the works and contributions of laborers to the development and achievements of the United States”.  I hope you are able to spend time with family and friends.  However you take advantage of the extra day off, please be safe.

My uncomplicated way of looking at things to explain what has happened with the markets since Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke is that the markets got spooked.  His tone was much harsher (Hawkish) than in July and it was not received well. 

According to MarketingPro, Inc., we’re entering a tricky time of year: September and October have a reputation for bringing an extra measure of market volatility

Some of the stock market’s most challenging events have hit in September and October, and other seasonal trends can also play a part.  Investopedia found that institutions start preparing for year-end distributions around this time.  Plus, individuals tend to reposition their portfolios after the summer months.

So, what’s an investor to do?  Be prepared to roll with an uptick in volatility, and don’t let seasonal trading influence your overall strategy.

It bears repeating the summary of What we do NOT know, What we do know, and What you should do:

What we do NOT know:

  1. How long this will last or when the markets will recover 
  2.  When the next 30% gain or 30% decline will commence  

What we do know: 

  1.  The economy had been showing tremendous strength before this current panic.
  2.  No person, investment adviser or government can consistently predict the future
  3.  Most of humanity has a massive internal motivation to innovate, grow, work, and succeed.
  4. Good times in this world come and go, but the spirit of the human soul continues.
  5. The past never guarantees the future.  

What should you do? 

  1.  If you have been implementing the comprehensive financial planning principles we have historically, currently, and continually advocate, our advice is to do exactly what you were doing BEFORE this current panic showed up
  2.  If you need cash, let us know and we will help you figure out the best place to take it from.
  3.  If your long-term financial goals have not changed, we do not recommend changing your portfolio (from our perspective, the word “portfolio” includes the entirety of your financial resources: all accounts and products you own, regardless of where they are held).
  4.  If you have some additional cash, we should talk about deploying it along the way
  5. Don’t spend hours fixated on the news.  Limit your time on the TV.  If you miss the evening news – trust me – they will be covering the same thing first thing the next morning. 
  6. Live with hope, faith, and gratitude.  Living with an attitude of gratitude will go a long way in keeping you healthy.
  7. Laugh.  A good belly laugh is great for reducing stress.
  8. Remember, this too shall pass.  We will get through this.  

If you have questions or concerns, PLEASE call me – 954-302-6321, or text me – 954-880-3410.  My assistant, Danielle, can be reached at 954-302-6324.  Our office is on a hybrid work schedule – in the office 2 days per week and remote 3 days per week.  As a result, we are doing limited face-to face (actually, “mask-to mask”) meetings in the office.  We can set up a zoom meeting so we can be “face-to-face” from wherever we are.  If we don’t pick up your call, please leave a message.  We promise to return your call as soon as possible.

As I have said many times before, there is never a bad time to evaluate your portfolioIf things have changed in your life, a change may be called for.  If your risk tolerance, time horizon, and overall goals remain the same, staying the course may be appropriate.  Bottom line, this is not a time for panic.

As always, please remember, you only have 168 hours to live your life this and every week.  Spend your 168 hours doing the things that only you can do – the things that are really important to you.  Spend more time with the people you love.  (And tell them you love them, too.)  Do activities to help improve your health and fitness and spiritual life.  Engage in activities that give joy to others (and see how much you benefit, too).  Laugh out loud.  Express your creativity.  Play a game.  Take a friend to lunch.  Donate your time to a worthy charity.  Change your routine.  Get more Return on Life! 

Thank you for your relationship and for your continued confidence and commitment. 

Sincerely,

Luana

Luana Mobley Corral, CFP®, CFS™, CLTC™, BFA™

 LMC/ms

 PS          If you or someone you know is contemplating divorce, a Second Saturday Divorce workshop is a good place to start.  My hope is that attendees will leave the workshop committed to working on their marriage instead of moving toward divorce, but if they make the “divorce” decision, they will be more informed about what to expect in the process.  We are still presenting free online workshops via Zoom.  The next workshop is Saturday, September 10, 2022.  Each workshop is from 10 AM to Noon.  Please go to SecondSaturdayBroward.com for more information and to register.

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In this week’s recap: Powell comments spur sell-off on Wall Street.


Weekly Economic Update

Presented by Luana Mobley Corral, CFP®, CFS™, CLTC™, BFA™

August 29, 2022

Under Pressure

Stocks dropped on Friday following Powell's remarks reiterating the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve. While his comments did not break new ground, markets reacted severely, perhaps on worries that interest rate hikes may continue into next year.

After starting the week sharply lower on renewed rising interest rates and economic slowdown fears, markets staged a modest turnaround beginning mid-week. Stocks rallied on Thursday, sparked by a revised Gross Domestic Product estimate showing the economy's shrinking less than initially estimated. Thursday's rally also got a boost from regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who suggested future rate hikes may be in line with market expectations.

Observations

U.S. equities were negative on the week with the S&P 500 Index down -4.02%.

Domestically, smaller sized companies outperformed their larger counterparts as the Russell 2000 index declined -2.93%.

International stocks outperformed domestic stocks with MSCI EAFE down -1.91%.

Emerging market stocks were better than developed with the MSCI EM index up +0.54%.

U.S. bonds were negative as Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index was down -0.36% for the week.

MADE A LOT OF MONEY - Probably my favorite bullet of all-time was the 53/47 split between “up” and “down” trading days in the US stock market over the last 50 years (1972-2021), and the realization that in spite of the near “every-other-day” volatility, the S&P 500 still generated an +11.1% per year return (source: BTN Research).

LUCK PLAYS A PART - The bullet that had me shaking my head every year when I updated it compared the fortunes (or misfortunes) of 2 retiring individuals exactly 9 years apart in age. The first person with $1 million invested 100% in the S&P 500 as of 1/01/1973 who was withdrawing an inflation-adjusted $100,000 per year would be out of money in just 9 years, i.e., as of 12/31/1981. The very next day, a 2nd person also with $1 million invested in the S&P 500 as of 1/01/1982 who is withdrawing an inflation-adjusted $100,000 per year would have $7.72 million remaining after 40 years, i.e., as of 12/31/2021 (source: BTN Research).

THINK DIFFERENTLY - Humans are predisposed to “straight-line” their future expectations. e.g., when the stock market is on a bull run, many investors (and advisors) see their good fortune continuing unabated. Conversely, when the stock market is in a bear market fall, many investors (and advisors) can’t see the rout ever ending. Both assumptions are wrong.

Reprinted with permission from BTN. Copyright © 2022 Michael A. Higley.

[1] Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 8/26/2022

Index Definitions

S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Russell Mid-Cap: Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index.

Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The real-time value is calculated with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986. The end-of-day value is calculated with a base value of 100.00 as of December 29, 1978.

MSCI EAFE: The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East.

MSCI EM: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond: The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition, are excluded.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg: The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds.

Disclosures
Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.

The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Advisor Group Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or divisions of Advisor Group or its affiliates. Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Advisor Group Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Advisor Group Research Team only as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Advisor Group has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements. Advisor Group is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.

Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. and Associated Investor Services, Inc., Luana Mobley Corral, Representative. Insurance products offered through Associated Financial Consultants, Inc. Pre-divorce planning offered through Crossroads Consulting of South Florida, Inc. Crossroads Consulting, Associated Financial Consultants & Investor Services, and Securities America are separate entities.

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The Behavior Gap and Your Financial Health

How might it affect you?

Provided by Luana Mobley Corral, CFP®, CFS, CLTC™, BFA™

“It turns out my job was not to find great investments but to help create great investors,” writes Carl Richards, author of “The Behavior Gap.” From increasing our budget mindfulness to taking a steadier approach to investing, Richards has drawn attention to how our unexamined behaviors and emotions can be to our detriment when it comes to living a happy and financially sound life. In many cases, we make poor financial decisions when experiencing panic or anxiety due to personal or widespread events. 1

The Behavior Gap Explained. Coined by Richards, “the behavior gap” refers to the difference between a wise financial decision versus what we decide to do. Many people miss out on higher returns because of emotionally driven decisions, creating a behavior gap between their lower returns and what they could have earned.

Excitement When Stocks Are High. Whether in a bull market or witnessing the hype from a product release, many investors may feel tempted to increase their risks or attempt to gain from emerging investments when stocks are high. This can lead to investors constantly readjusting their portfolios as the market experiences upswings. 

Fear When Stocks Are Low. In response to market volatility, investors may feel the need to choose more secure investments and avoid uncertain or seemingly unsafe investments. When stocks are low, a typical response may be to sell and effectively miss out on potential long-term gains.

Short-Term Anxiety and Focus. As humans, viewing aspects of our lives through the lenses of current circumstances is normal. However, one emotional response to any event is letting the moment consume us. Many may find it difficult to think long-term and remember. However, making a rash decision can inhibit the long-term benefit of maintaining a balanced perspective without reactionary behavior.

The market can go up or down at any given point, or it can remain the same. One thing we can control is how we handle our financial strategy. Remembering the likelihood of recovery over time — and the market’s nearly inevitable up-and-down movement — can provide a more logical angle to calm the nerves.

If you’re experiencing financial anxiety in response to the markets, take a breath and remember the potential for long-term gains. Of course, you can and should always reach out to your financial professional for further clarification.

Luana Mobley Corral may be reached at 954-302-6321 or luana@lmcorral.com.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. and Associated Investor Services, Inc., Luana Mobley Corral, Representative.  Insurance products offered through Associated Financial Consultants, Inc.  Pre-divorce planning offered through Crossroads Consulting of South Florida, Inc.  Crossroads Consulting, Associated Financial Consultants & Investor Services, and Securities America are separate entities.

Citations

  1. BehaviorGap.com, May 16, 2022